Tsis ntev los no, superposition ntawm ntau yam xws li thaiv navigation nyob rau hauv lub Strait ntawm Hormuz, tsausmuag kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi roj crude thiab cov surges nruam nyob rau hauv shipping nqi pheej hmoo tau coj mus rau ib tug tshiab puag ncig skyrocketing thoob ntiaj teb freight hiav txwv. Qhov kev hloov pauv no cuam tshuam rau Tuam Tshoj txoj kev xa tawm steel hlau - CIF tus nqi raug thawb, kev txiav txim siab raug thaiv, qhov kev pheej hmoo pheej hmoo nce ntxiv, thiab kev sib tw xa tawm tau hloov pauv los ntawm yav dhau los "kev sib tw nqi" uas tau tso siab rau FOB tus nqi zoo rau "kev sib tw cov saw hlau resilience" nyob rau hauv logistics controllability, xa khoom ruaj khov thiab kev pheej hmoo. Ntawm cov yeeb nkab steel ntau yam nrog siab sab nraud dependence, seamless kav yog tshwj xeeb yog raug rau logistics shocks vim lawv siab dua nyob rau hauv lub Persian Gulf lag luam; thaum cov kav dej welded tsis tshua muaj kev cuam tshuam vim tawg daim ntawv thov teb thiab hloov tau yooj yim. Tsab ntawv xov xwm no tau txheeb xyuas txoj hauv kev xa tawm tseem ceeb ntawm kev nce dej hiav txwv freight, thiab soj ntsuam nws qhov ntau - qhov cuam tshuam rau Tuam Tshoj cov hlau xa tawm.
I. Core Transmission Path of Rising Ocean Freight
Tus neeg tsav tsheb ncaj qha ntawm kev nce dej hiav txwv freight yog ib txhij surge nyob rau hauv cov nqi roj crude thiab shipping nqi pheej hmoo. Lub Strait ntawm Hormuz nqa txog 20% -30% ntawm lub ntiaj teb no seaborne crude roj luam. Thaum navigation raug thaiv, cov roj thoob ntiaj teb yuav ntsib qhov sib txawv txhua hnub ntawm 14 lab mus rau 18 lab barrels, thiab cov nqi roj nce yuav sai sai mus rau kev thauj mus los hauv hiav txwv.
Tam sim no, mainstream shipping giants tau ncua kev cuam tshuam txoj kev, thiab ships raug yuam kom reroute los ntawm lub Cape ntawm Good Hope, uas ho txuas ntxiv mus rau lub voyage ntawm txoj kev los ntawm Asia mus rau cov teb chaws Europe thiab Middle East. Lub superposition ntawm cov nqi thauj khoom yooj yim, kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev ua tsov rog thiab kev hloov kho bunker tau ua rau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev xa khoom ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov hlau xa tawm. LNG nkoj xauj tsev tau nce siab los ntawm ntau dua 600%, tus nqi sib tw txhua hnub ntawm cov neeg nqa khoom loj heev (VLCC) tau nce siab tshaj $ 280,000, thiab cov nqi pov hwm kev noj qab haus huv hauv hiav txwv tau nce ob npaug - qhov cuam tshuam ntawm ntau tus nqi ua rau kev thauj mus los xaus qhov tseem ceeb ntawm luv luv - luv nqi pricing. 2607 daim ntawv cog lus tseem ceeb ntawm lub thawv ntim khoom thauj khoom (Tebchaws Europe txoj kev) yav tom ntej tau nce rau xya lub lis piam sib law liag txij li lub Plaub Hlis lig, nrog kev nce ntxiv ntawm 60.78%.
II. Soaring CIF Weaks tus nqi Advantage ntawm Steel Exports
Tus nqi xa tawm ntawm cov hlau yog sib koom ua ke los ntawm FOB tus nqi thiab dej hiav txwv freight. Txawm hais tias FOB cov lus hais ntawm cov tuam tsev steel hauv tsev tseem tsis hloov pauv, tsuav yog dej hiav txwv freight fluctuates sharply vim tawm - ntawm - tswj cov nqi roj, tus nqi CIF tiag los ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom txawv teb chaws yuav nce siab.
Qhov no txhais tau hais tias qhov ntev -sawv tus nqi sib tw zoo ntawm Suav steel yog tas li eroded los ntawm high freight. Tshwj xeeb, cov neeg siv khoom nyob rau ntev - txoj kev thauj mus los xws li Middle East thiab Europe tsis yog tsuas yog ntsib cov nqi yuav khoom nce ntxiv xwb, tab sis kuj muaj qhov tsis paub meej ntxiv los ntawm kev xa khoom qeeb. thaum tus nqi ntawm marine qis- cov roj sulfur tau nce los ntawm 30%-35% hauv ib lub lis piam, thiab tus nqi ntawm Singapore's bunkering hub tau tshaj $ 1,100 / ton, rub cov nyhuv ntawm kev thauj khoom ntawm CIF tau dhau deb tshaj qhov kev tswj tau ntawm cov hlau mills.
III. Rising Order Performance Pressure thiab Default Risk
Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev xa khoom tsis meej ntawm kev xa tawm tsis yog tsuas yog cuam tshuam nrog kev txiav txim tshiab, tab sis kuj cuam tshuam ncaj qha rau cov ntawv cog lus kos npe.
Kev txiav txim tshiab: Qee tus me thiab nruab nrab- cov tub lag luam loj tau ncua kev txiav txim vim kev xa khoom tsis ruaj khov, uas txwv tsis pub luv luv - lub sij hawm xa tawm ntim loj hlob
Orders nyob rau hauv kev thauj mus los: Yav dhau los kos npe xa tawm xaj tuaj yeem ntsib teeb meem kev ua haujlwm vim kev xa khoom qeeb thiab kev thauj khoom nce
Default txaus ntshai: Tsis paub meej nyob rau hauv cov sij hawm shipping superimposed nrog cov nqi nce tuaj yeem ua rau cov lus tsis raug cai hauv qee cov ntawv cog lus
Nthuav qhov chaw: Tsis paub meej nyob rau hauv cov sij hawm shipping superimposed nrog cov nqi soaring erodes profit margins ntawm export lag luam
Kev khiav hauj lwm siab ntawm kev lag luam xa tawm yog hloov los ntawm kev sib tw nqi ntshiab mus rau kev sib tw hauv kev ua tau zoo thiab muaj peev xwm tswj kev pheej hmoo.
Qhov kev sib tw ntawm kev thauj khoom hauv hiav txwv no yog qhov tshwm sim los ntawm qhov kev sib tw ntawm ntau yam: kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm thaj chaw, cov nqi roj, cov teeb meem kev taug kev, kev muaj peev xwm thiab kev nce ntxiv. Rau cov tuam txhab xa tawm steel, qhov no tsis yog tsuas yog ib qho kev sib tw loj, tab sis kuj yog kev hloov pauv kev lag luam - cov lag luam uas tuaj yeem tsim kom muaj cov khoom lag luam ruaj khov, xauv hauv siab - muaj peev xwm zoo thiab txhim kho kev ua tau zoo hauv kev kub ntxhov yuav sawv tawm hauv kev sib tw tshiab thoob ntiaj teb; thaum cov tuam txhab lag luam uas dhau - tso siab rau tus nqi zoo thiab tsis quav ntsej txog kev tswj hwm kev pheej hmoo yuav raug yuam tawm hauv nthwv dej ntawm kev thauj khoom nqos cov txiaj ntsig. Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, tus yuam sij rau kev yeej Tuam Tshoj cov hlau xa tawm tsis yog nyob rau hauv steel mill Rhiav, tab sis nyob rau hauv txhua qhov ntawm cov dej hiav txwv txoj kev thiab cov saw hlau.
