I. Ua ntej- Ib Nrab Kev Pom Zoo: Qhov nyuaj tshaj plaws -Hit Core Market
Raws li kev tshaj tawm cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Tuam Tshoj General Administration ntawm Kev lis kev cai, Tuam Tshoj cov hlau xa tawm mus rau rau lub Gulf Kev Koom Tes Pab Pawg (GCC) tag nrho.4.542 lab tonsnyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2026, poob kwv yees li997,000 tons(ib poob ntawm18%) los ntawm5.539 lab tonsnyob rau tib lub sij hawm ntawm lub xyoo dhau los- ua rau nws yog qhov phem tshaj - ua haujlwm loj cheeb tsam rau Suav hlau xa tawm.
Hauv qab daim duab no yog qhov cuam tshuam ncaj qha ntawm Strait of Hormuz thiab Hiav Txwv Liab shipping teeb meem ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb. Middle East-tshwj xeeb yog lub teb chaws GCC- tau ntev yog ib qho ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam xa tawm tseem ceeb rau cov khoom lag luam steel, suav txog kwv yees li ntawm11.7%–23%ntawm Tuam Tshoj tag nrho cov hlau xa tawm nyob ntawm lub sijhawm thiab cov ntaub ntawv qhov chaw.
II. Lub teb chaws-Txoj kev tawg: Divergence zais qab qhov sib sau
Cov xov xwm tshaj tawm 18% poob ntsej muag ua rau muaj kev sib txawv heev thoob plaws ib lub tebchaws. Lub teb chaws-los ntawm- lub teb chaws cov ntaub ntawv yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev nkag siab qhov tseeb ntawm qhov kev poob siab no:
| Lub teb chaws | H1 2025 (10,000 t) | H1 2026 (10,000 t) | Yog Change | Volume Hloov (10,000 t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | 232.1 | 140.4 | −39.5% | −91.6 |
| Saudi Arabia | 262.7 | 258.0 | −1.8% | −4.7 |
| Oman | 29.6 | 45.4 | +53.3% | +15.8 |
| Kuwait | 15.2 | 5.1 | −66.4% | −10.1 |
| Qatar | 13.2 | 4.7 | −64.7% | −8.5 |
| Tag nrho | 552.8 | 453.6 | −18.0% | −99.2 |
Ob lub cim hauv cov lus no tau nthuav tawm ntau dua li qhov poob nws tus kheej:
Lub cim 1: UAE yog ib qho loj tshaj plaws ntawm kev poob qis -thiab nws tseem poob
UAE ib leeg suav rau ntau dua 90% ntawm tag nrho cov ntim poob, thiab qhov kev poob qis tsis tau ruaj khov los ntawm Lub Xya Hli. Kev lis kev cai txhua hli qhia tau hais tias Tuam Tshoj lub Xya hli ntuj steel xa tawm mus rau GCC lub teb chaws tsuas yog 701,000 tonnes, nqis ntxiv 16.6% lub hli-rau- hli.
Lub ntsiab lus ntawm no yog qhov tseem ceeb: qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb tsis yog kev lag luam kho mob, tab sis Hiav Txwv Liab thiab Hormuz tensions uas yuam cov kab xa mus rau reroute thiab nce kev pheej hmoo premia, nce nqi thiab sij hawm thauj mus los rau cov chaw nres nkoj tseem ceeb xws li Jebel Ali thiab Khalifa. Cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam qhia tias kev ua tsov ua rog- cov nqi pheej hmoo tau nce 200%, cov thawv thauj khoom tau dhia los ntawm USD 3,000 rau ib lub thawv, thiab kev caij nkoj tau ntev los ntawm 14-20 hnub- ncaj qha squeezing export margins .
Lub Cim 2: Saudi Arabia yog qhov tseem ceeb tiaj tus, thaum Oman nce ntau dua 50%
Qhov no yog tej zaum qhov feem ntau counterintuitive nrhiav. Vim li cas thiaj muaj kev sib txawv ntawm cov xeev Gulf nyob sib ze? Vim tias qhov kev hloov pauv rau lub hlis dhau los tsis yog "Gulf nres kev yuav khoom," tab sis yog "cov khoom raug xa rov qab los ntawm ntau txoj kev."
Qhov no rerouting logic yog corroborated los ntawm ntau cov ntaub ntawv cov ntsiab lus:
Oman yog lub rooj vag lwm txoj kev: Nrog kev xa khoom ncaj qha mus rau UAE cov chaw nres nkoj (Jebel Ali, Khalifa) ntsib kev pheej hmoo siab, nqi, thiab kev ncua sijhawm, ib feem ntawm cov khoom thauj steel tau hloov mus rau Omani cov chaw nres nkoj xws li Sohar thiab Salalah, uas nyob sab nraum cov chaw muaj kev pheej hmoo loj tshaj plaws. Oman cov+53.3%kev loj hlob yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm "kev hloov pauv hloov pauv" es tsis yog qhov kawg nkaus -xav tau kev nthuav dav.
Saudi Arabia lub resilience: Txawm hais tias yog lub lag luam loj tshaj plaws (262.7 lab tonnes), Saudi Arabia pom tsuas yog ib1.8%poob. Qhov no qhia txog ob yam: (1) Saudi Arabia tus kheej lub peev xwm steel hauv tsev nthuav dav txo qis kev vam khom rau qee yam khoom lag luam; thiab (2) Saudi Arabia txoj kev xa khoom ncaj qha nrog Tuam Tshoj tau cuam tshuam tsawg dua los ntawm Hormuz chokepoint, nrog qee cov khoom thauj tuaj yeem hu rau Saudi chaw nres nkoj ncaj qha.
Kuwait thiab Qatar raws li kev puas tsuaj: Ob lub lag luam me no nyob ntawm kev thauj mus los ntawm UAE chaw nres nkoj. Thaum Jebel Ali qhov ua tau zoo poob qis, lawv cov khoom siv tau zoo raug cuam tshuam, ua rau−66.4%thiab−64.7%poob qis raws li - qhov mob hnyav tshaj plaws hauv cheeb tsam.
III. Impact Pathways: Peb Txoj Kev Sib Txuas Lus
1. Logistics Chokepoint thiab Freight nqi nce
Lub Strait ntawm Hormuz yog ib txoj hlab ntsha tseem ceeb ntawm kev xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb. Raws li kev ua phem tau nce ntxiv, kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev thauj mus los hauv nkoj tau nce siab, cov neeg muab kev pov hwm tau thim kev pov hwm, thiab ntau tus tswv nkoj tsis kam hu rau ntawm Persian Gulf chaw nres nkoj. Kev lag luam tawm tswv yim qhia tias qee lub tuam tsev steel hauv Suav teb tau ncua kev txiav txim tshiab rau Middle East, tsis tuaj yeem lav cov kev pabcuam thauj khoom lossis tau txais cov lus qhia meej txog kev thauj khoom [1]. Qee qhov kev kwv yees hais tias yog lub Strait tseem raug kaw rau ib hlis, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm txhua hli mus rau Middle East tuaj yeem cuam tshuam los ntawm 1.1624 lab tonnes, sib npaug rau 11.72% ntawm tag nrho cov hlau xa tawm.
2. Tus nqi Pass-Los ntawm thiab Margin Compression
Txawm tias cov khoom thauj uas ua nkoj ntsib cov nqi tsim nyog:
Kev ua tsov ua rog- cov nqi pheej hmoo nce 200%
Thawv freight nce USD 3,000 / thawv
Kev caij nkoj txuas ntxiv 14-20 hnub
Cov nqi roj thawb nce bunker roj nqi thoob ntiaj teb, nqa cov nqi hauv av rau seaborne hlau ore thiab coking thee zoo ib yam.
Cov nqi no txhais mus rau hauv kev nyem ncaj qha rau Suav steel tus nqi kev sib tw hauv Middle Eastern kev lag luam, nrog Middle Eastern cov neeg yuav khoom tau tshaj tawm tias ncua kev nug thiab khov cov ntawv xaj tshiab.
3. Xav tau-Side Uncertainty
Middle Eastern infrastructure tej yaam num ntsib kev ncua lossis ncua kev pheej hmoo. Piv txwv li, Saudi Arabia's NEOM lub nroog tshiab project thiab lwm yam kev tsim kho tseem ceeb yuav raug ncua vim muaj kev pheej hmoo thiab kev txwv peev. Cov nqi roj volatility tuaj yeem cuam tshuam ntxiv peev peev hauv petrodollar- nyiaj txiag kev lag luam, ua rau cov hlau xav tau ntawm qhov chaw.
IV. Kev Pabcuam -Sab Teb: Kev Lag Luam Hauv Tebchaws Kev Nyuaj Siab thiab Hloov Cov Qauv
Qhov kev poob siab export tsis ploj mus - nws redirects rau hauv Suav teb kev lag luam:
Domestic "Involution" Intensifies
Keeb kwm Middle East- khi steel yog raug yuam rov qab rau hauv kev lag luam hauv tsev. Thaum pom pom kev noj ntawm rebar tau qhia qee qhov kev rov qab los, cov qib tsis txaus ntseeg, thiab cov khoom lag luam hauv zej zog tau qeeb. Kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev xa tawm yuav ua rau muaj kev sib tw hauv tsev ntau dua, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv kub -rolled coil thiab coated sheet- ob hom khoom uas hnyav tshaj plaws xa tawm mus rau Middle East .
V. Outlook: Luv-Lub Sij Hawm Pem Teb, Ntev-Lub Sij Hawm Siab
Tuam Tshoj domestic steel lag luam tab tom nkag mus rau lub sijhawm ntawm "muaj zog cov nqi, tsis muaj zog thov". Ntawm ib sab, cov khoom siv raw khoom nce ntxiv (cov roj crude, freight) txwv qhov downside rau steel nqi, muab cov nqi them nyiaj yug. Ntawm qhov tod tes, qhov poob ntawm kev txiav txim xa tawm thiab cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev siab yuav ua rau muaj kev rov qab los ntawm cov nqi hlau.
Peb Qhov Tseem Ceeb Ntawm Kev Saib Xyuas
Lub sijhawm ntawm Hormuz cuam tshuam: Yog tias ua tau zoo li qub hauv 1-3 lub hlis, qhov kev hloov pauv tam sim no (UAE poob qis, Oman surge) tuaj yeem thim rov qab. Yog tias ntev dhau 3 lub hlis, kev lag luam feem yuav poob mus tas li rau Qaib Cov Txwv thiab Is Nrias teb.
Txawm hais tias tus qauv rerouting dhau los ua tus qauv: UAE's Jebel Ali chaw nres nkoj tau yog lub chaw xa khoom xa mus rau tag nrho Gulf. Yog tias Sohar thiab Salalah nqus lub peev xwm mus tas li, qhov chaw nruab nrab ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus rau Gulf steel faib yuav hloov mus rau sab qaum teb mus rau Oman-kev hloov pauv nrog rau lub sijhawm ntev - cuam tshuam.
Domestic thov rov qab pace: Kev xa tawm - mus rau - cov nyhuv hloov pauv hauv tsev tsuas yog tuaj yeem tswj tau yog tias kev tsim kho hauv tsev ua kom nrawm txaus los nqus cov ntim rov qab. Txwv tsis pub, lub siab "involution" yuav intensify.
Cov lus pom zoo
Optimize tswj kev txiav txim: Kos npe ntev - daim ntawv cog lus shipping, txais FOB nqe lus los tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev thauj mus los
Kev tiv thaiv nyiaj txiag: Siv cov cuab yeej tiv thaiv los ntsuas cov nqi pauv thiab cov nqi thauj khoom, thiab yuav cov ntawv pov hwm xa tawm
Diversify ntshuam channel: Ua kom nrawm nthuav dav ntawm cov khoom siv hlau loj los ntawm Brazil thiab Australia, txo qis kev vam khom rau cov khoom tsis yog- cov chaw nruab nrab sab hnub tuaj
Cov khoom sib tov hloov kho: Tsom ntsoov rau tus nqi siab- ntxiv cov khoom siv phaj xws li cov raj xa dej kom ntes cov txiaj ntsig zoo thaum lub sijhawm qis- qhov kawg ntawm cov khoom xa tawm tuaj yeem cog lus raws li tus nqi siab
Xaus
Kev kub ntxhov ntawm Hormuz tsis tau tsuas yog txo qis Tuam Tshoj cov hlau xa tawm mus rau Middle East- nws tau hloov kho thaj chaw ntawm kev lag luam ntws hauv Gulf. Lub UAE tab tom ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev uas yog lub chaw xa khoom xa mus nyob rau hauv kev ntxhov siab, Saudi Arabia qhia txog kev tiv thaiv los ntawm lwm txoj kev, thiab Oman tau tshwm sim los ua tus yeej tsis xav txog ntawm thaj chaw arbitrage. Rau Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam steel, qhov kev kub ntxhov no ib txhij yog luv luv - lub sij hawm logistics poob siab thiab ntev - lub sij hawm catalyst rau ntsuab transformation thiab kev lag luam muaj ntau haiv neeg. Cov tuam txhab lag luam uas yuav muaj zog dua yog cov uas tuaj yeem tswj hwm kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev xa khoom, nqus cov nqi ua raws li cov pa roj carbon monoxide, thiab piv rau tus nqi siab dua - ntxiv cov khoom lag luam.
