Sino-Kev sib raug zoo ntawm kev lag luam hauv Asmeskas tab tom pom cov cim ntawm kev yooj yim, nrog cov thawj coj ntawm ob lub teb chaws npaj yuav ntsib thaum lub rooj sib tham APEC, xa cov teeb liab zoo. Hauv tsev, kev lag luam kev lag luam cov txiaj ntsig tau nce ntxiv hauv lub Cuaj Hli. Lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab tau rov hais dua nws txoj cai txhawb nqa nyiaj txiag thiab rov pib ua lag luam nyiaj txiag ua lag luam, ua rau kev lag luam xav tau ntawm ib puag ncig looser liquidity.
Nrog kev txhim kho macroeconomic kev cia siab thiab maj-kom-ua kom tiav cov kev thov hauv qee thaj tsam, cov nqi lag luam tau nce tsis tu ncua. Cov nqi chaw cia siab tias yuav nyob ruaj khov hnub no, nrog qee lub khw muag khoom pom me ntsis nce ntawm 0-10 yuan.
Raw Material Trend Analysis
[Coking Coke thiab Coal] Cov nqi pom qee qhov nce nag hmo. Qhov thib ob ntawm tus nqi nce rau coke tau siv ntau, tab sis steel mills 'cov nyiaj tau los tau nqaim, ua rau lawv txaus siab rau kev ntxiv cov ntaub ntawv raw. Coking thee nqi tseem nyob ruaj khov, muab cov nroj tsuag coking rau ntawm brink ntawm profitability. Coking thee thiab coke tus nqi yuav tsum nyob ruaj khov hnub no, nrog qee tus nqi qhia lub zog.
[Billets] Cov nqi tseem nyob ruaj khov nag hmo, nrog qee qhov pom me ntsis nce. Tus nqi tseem ceeb ntawm billets kaw ntawm 3,030-3,040 yuan / ton, nrog rau feem ntau tus nqi tseem tshuav ruaj khov thiab kev lag luam ntim nruab nrab, qhia txog kev ua lag luam qis. Feem ntau steel profile tus nqi tau nce los ntawm 10 yuan, nrog kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv qis qis tseem muaj zog thiab tag nrho cov kev lag luam ntim nruab nrab. Cov tub luam tseem ceev faj txog kev yuav khoom, thiab cov nqi billet yuav tsum nyob twj ywm feem ntau niaj hnub no, nrog qee tus nqi pom qhov nce me ntsis.
[Iron Ore] Nqe poob nag hmo. Thaum cov khoom xa tuaj los ntawm Australia thiab Brazil tsis ntev los no tau nce ntxiv, cov chaw nres nkoj tuaj txog tau qis dua lub hli - dhau - hli, thiab cov chaw nres nkoj cov khoom lag luam txuas ntxiv mus. Thaum molten hlau ntau lawm tau poob qis me ntsis, qhov nruab nrab ntawm cov khoom lag luam txhua hnub ntawm lub hlis no tau nce lub hli - dhau - hli, ua rau muaj kev tos kom muaj zog - thiab - pom kev lag luam. Muab hais tias molten hlau ntau lawm kuj siab, steel mills 'kev thov rau raw cov ntaub ntawv tseem resilient. Cov nqi hlau ore xav tias yuav hloov pauv niaj hnub no, nrog qee qhov kev lag luam muaj kev cuam tshuam me ntsis.
[Khoom] Cov nqi tau nce hauv qee lub khw nag hmo. Cov khoom pov tseg ntawm cov hlau loj loj thoob plaws tebchaws tau nce me ntsis, kev noj txhua hnub poob qis me ntsis, thiab tuaj txog tau nce me ntsis. Tam sim no, steel mills tseem yuav tsum tau ntxiv lawv cov khoom muag, nrog cov khoom seem thiab cov khoom lag luam zeb tseem tshuav tsawg. Cov peev txheej lag luam nruj. Ua ke nrog cov khoom tiav tiav thiab cov kev cia siab ntawm txoj cai, cov nqi seem txuas ntxiv ua raws li cov khoom tiav. Cov nqi yuav tsum nyob twj ywm feem ntau niaj hnub no, nrog qee qhov kev lag luam tau nce me ntsis.
