Thaum lub Kaum hlis, lub khw lag luam tseem tseem nyob hauv lub caij nyoog ntau ntawm cov khoom noj steel hlau, cov hlau ntau lawm tseem nyob theem siab, thiab cov nqi hnyav seem feem ntau ruaj khov. Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm tom qab, raws li cov huab cua hloov khaub thuas thiab qhov kev thov kom tsis muaj zog, cov nqi steel yuav fluctuate.
1. Cov hlau hnyav nyob rau hauv kev lag luam hauv kev lag luam yog feem ntau ruaj khov.
Thaum xaus ntawm lub Kaum Hlis, lub tuam txhab steel CSPI China steel nqi index tau 121.72 points, nce 0.08 cov ntsiab lus, lossis 0.07%, nce 5.76 points, los yog 4.97%, thiab cia 0.08 cov ntsiab lus, los yog 0.07%.
1. Cov khoom pheej yig nce mus ntxiv thiab cov nqi ntawm cov phaj tseem pheej poob
Thaum xaus ntawm lub Kaum Hlis, CSPI ntev khoom lag luam yog 131.93 points, nce 2.27 points, los yog 1.75%. Daim ntawv teev CSPI qhia tau 114.59 points, cia 1.79 ntsiab lus, los yog 1.54%. Piv nrog rau tib lub sij hawm ntawm xyoo tas los, qhov khoom lag luam ntev ntev li ntawm 11.83 points. Qhov nce yog 9.85%; lub phaj Performance index nce ntawm 1,06 cov ntsiab lus, nce ntawm 0.93%.
2. Hloov cov nqi ntawm cov khoom loj steel
Thaum kawg ntawm lub Kaum Hlis, ntawm cov yim hlau loj cov khoom soj ntsuam los ntawm Iron and Steel Association, cov nqi ntawm cov kab thiab cov hlau tuav txuas ntxiv, nce los ntawm RMB 115 / ton thiab RMB 116 / ton raws li lub hli dhau los; tus nqi ntawm lub kaum paj yeeb sawv los ntawm lub hli dhau los thiab nce los ntawm RMB 20 / ton ntawm lub hli dhau los; Cov nqi ntawm daim hlau, cov npoo npog kub, cov ntaub ntawv txias thiab cov ntaub pua plag yeej tau poob, nce los ntawm RMB 75 / ton, RMB 94 / ton, RMB 48 / ton thiab RMB 28 / tuj raws li; tus nqi ntawm kub dov seamless hlau hlauv yog los ntawm kev poob qab, cov saw poob los ntawm 22 yuan / ton.
3. Hloov cov nqi steel nqi nyob hauv txhua lub lim tiam
Thaum lub Kaum hlis, CSPI cov txauv hauv tsev steel hlau qhov muag poob me ntsis. Ntawm lawv, lub thib ob lub lim tiam poob, thiab peb thiab plaub lub lim piam Rose. Nyob rau hauv Lub Kaum Ib Hlis, tus nqi qis me ntsis hauv thawj lub lim tiam, thiab tus nqi poob qis dua zaum ob thiab peb as thiv.
4. Hloov hauv cov nqi hnyav hauv cov lag luam loj hauv cheeb tsam
Raws li kev soj ntsuam xyuas cov hlau thiab hlau, thaum Lub Kaum Hli, CSPI thoob plaws hauv cheeb tsam hauv lub nroog cov khoom lag luam tau nce lawm thiab poob. Ntawm lawv: Sab Hnub Tuam Tshoj cheeb tsam tau nce ntxiv, nce 0.45% los ntawm lub hli dhau los; tus nqi qis hauv Central Sab Qab Teb, Southwest China thiab Northwest Tuam Tshoj nce ntawm 0.48% rau 0.78% thiab 0.81% ntawm lub hli dhau los; thaj chaw Northeast poob los ntawm qhov nce mus rau kev poob, down 1.53% los ntawm lub hli dhau los. Tus nqi qis hauv Teb Chaws Tuam Tshoj qaum mus txuas ntxiv, poob 0.17% los ntawm lub hli dhau los.
Qhov thib ob, kev ntsuam xyuas ntawm cov kev hloov hauv cov nqi hnyav hauv kev lag luam hauv domestic
Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj, txoj kev lag luam hlau txuas ntxiv tuaj, thiab kev thov steel tseem nyob ruaj khov. Cov hlau ntau tau tuav cov theem siab, cov khoom lag luam thiab cov khoom lag luam muaj peev xwm ua tau zoo, cov hlau hnyav nyob rau hauv ntau qhov chaw nqaim, thiab qhov teeb meem no feem ntau kuj ruaj khov.
1. Siv qhov kev lag luam steel kom muaj kev loj hlob, kev xav tau steel feem ntau yog ruaj khov
Raws li lub National Bureau of Statistics, txij thaum lub Ib Hlis mus rau Lub Kaum Hli, lub teb chaws tus nqi ruaj (tshwj tsis yog tus neeg ua liaj ua teb) nce 5.7% xyoo-rau-lub xyoo, thiab qhov kev loj hlob tau nce 0.3 feem pua ntxiv siab tshaj li thaum lub Ib Hlis - Cuaj hlis. Ntawm lawv, infrastructure kev nqis peev nce li 3.7% ntawm xyoo-rau-lub xyoo, thiab qhov kev loj hlob nce ntxiv 0.4 feem pua ntawm lub Ib Hlis mus rau Cuaj hlis; peev nyiaj lag luam hauv lub tebchaws tau nce ntxiv los ntawm 9.7% xyoo-rau-lub xyoo, thiab qhov kev loj hlob qis qis 0.2 feem pua ntawm lub Ib Hlis mus rau Cuaj Hli. Ntawm lawv, qhov chaw khab tsev tshiab tau nce 16.3%, thiab qhov kev loj hlob qis dua 0.1%. Thaum lub Kaum Hli Ntuj, qhov kev nqis peev ntxiv ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam saum toj no tau nce ntxiv los ntawm 5.9% ib xyoo-rau-lub xyoo, 0.1 feem pua ntxiv sai tshaj li hauv lub Cuaj Hli. Ntawm cov khoom lag luam, kev tsim khoom lag luam yog nce li ntawm 6.8%, cov cuab yeej tsim khoom lag luam nce ntxiv 8.1%, txoj kev tsheb nqaj hlau, nkoj, thiab lwm yam khoom siv kev lag luam raug nce los ntawm 5.0%, thiab lub tshuab hluav taws xob thiab khoom siv hluav taws xob 6.8%, khoos phis tawj, sib txuas lus thiab lwm yam khoom siv hluav taws xob. Kev tsim khoom tau loj hlob los ntawm 14.6%, thaum hluav taws xob, kev tsim tawm cua sov thiab khoom hnyav 5.9%. Los ntawm tag nrho cov teeb meem, cov cuab yeej cuab tam thiab av peev, lub ntsiab hlau kev lag luam tswj kev loj hlob, thiab steel thov tseem nyob ruaj khov.
2. Lub zis txhua hnub ntawm crude steel txo, thiab cov muaj peev txheej ntau tseem nyob rau theem siab.
Raws li lub National Bureau of Statistics, lub kaum hli ntuj, lub teb chaws ntawm npua hlau, crude steel thiab steel (xws li cov khoom siv rov ua dua) 67.74 lab tons, 82.55 lab tons thiab 98.02 lab tons, feem ntau, nce 7.3%, 9.1% thiab 11.5 % xyoo-rau-lub xyoo. Lawv nce ntxiv 2.9, 1.6 thiab 1.7 percentage points piv rau ib lub hlis dhau los; lub teb chaws nruab nrab txhua hnub cov khoom siv hlau steel yog 2,632,900 tons, tus thawj ntawm 32,100 tons ntawm lub hli dhau los, txo qis ntawm 1.2%. Txawm hais tias tus crude steel Nissan tau poob qis me ntsis, nws tseem yog qhov thib peb siab tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm; lub teb chaws muag khoom 5.5 lab tons ntawm steel, 1.14 lab tons ntawm imported hlau, thiab net export hlau yog sib npaug 4.54 lab tons ntawm crude hlau, cia 8.1% los ntawm lub hli dhau los; Thaum lub Kaum Hlis, nruab nrab txhua hnub ntawm cov khoom siv roj hauv kev muag khoom yog 2.5163 lab tons, txo tus nqi 0.55% ntawm lub hli dhau los thiab nce 9.1% xyoo-rau-lub xyoo. Txawm hais tias txhua txhua hnub tso tawm ntawm crude steel poob los ntawm yav dhau los lub hlis, qhov kev tso tawm ntawm lub peev xwm kuj tseem ceev ceev.
3. Cov nqi ntawm raw cov ntaub ntawv tau nce, thiab tus nqi ntawm imported ore tau nce.
Raws li kev soj ntsuam xyuas cov hlau thiab hlau, cov nqi ntawm cov hlau khov thiab cov hlau hluav taws xob ntxiv txuas ntxiv rau thaum xaus ntawm lub Kaum Hlis, nce 3.39% thiab 9.37% feem pua, nce 1.19 thiab 5.74 cov ntsiab lus feem ntawm yav dhau los lub hli; coking coal and metallurgical coke Tus nqi sawv ntawm qhov downside, nrog kev nce 2.12% thiab 1.93% feem ntau; cov nqi seem txuas ntxiv, nce 1.12%, thiab qhov nce nce nrog 1.56 feem pua ntawm lub hli dhau los. Los ntawm xyoo-rau-lub xyoo, qhov nqi ntawm imported ore ntau ntxiv los ntawm 27.54%, tus nqi ntawm cov hlau ntawm cov hlau tsis zoo nce 10.91%, tus nqi coking thee ntau zog los ntawm 7.58%, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv hlau cawv thiab cov nqi seem ntawm 30.55 % thiab 46.83%, feem ntau, thiab tag nrho tus nqi tseem nyob theem siab.
3. Cov nqes hlau nyob hauv tus txheej txheem thoob ntiaj teb tseem pheej tsis kam, thiab poob qis me ntsis.
Thaum lub Kaum Hli, CRU International Steel Composite Price Index yog 188.5 points, cia 2.9 points ntawm ib hlis, los yog 1.5%, txhawm rau 0.1 feem pua ntawm lub hli dhau los. Muab piv nrog tib lub sijhawm ntawm xyoo tas los no, nws nce 13.0 points, los yog 7.4%.
1. Ntev thiab phaj nqi tseem pheej yig, thiab phaj thickness yog siab tshaj cov khoom ntev.
Thaum lub Kaum Hli, CRU ntev khoom lag luam yog 194.0 points, tus thawj txo ntawm 0.2 points ntawm lub hli dhau los, tus thawj txo ntawm 0.1%, uas yog 1.3 feem pua cov ntsiab lus qis tshaj li ntawm lub hli dhau los; cov CRU daim ntawv qhia tau ua tiav yog 185.8 points, tus thawj ntawm 4.3 points ntawm lub hli dhau los, tus thawj qis qis 2.3% piv nrog lub hli dhau los. Qhov nce ntawm 0.5 feem pua ntsiab lus yog 2.2 feem pua cov ntsiab lus siab dua hais tias ntawm cov khoom ntev. Muab piv rau tib lub sijhawm ntawm xyoo tas los, cov CRU ntev khoom muag tau nce 4.1 points, lossis 2.2%; lub CRU phaj Performance index sawv los ntawm 17.5 cov ntsiab lus, qhov nce ntawm 10.4%.
2. Qaum Teb Asmeskas thiab Asmeskas pheej poob, thiab Europe yuav sawv thiab poob.
(1) North American ua lag luam
Thaum lub Kaum Hli Ntuj, CRU North American steel tus nqi qis yog 211.8 points, tus thawj 5.6 cov ntsiab lus tau los ntawm lub hli dhau los, tus thawj qis qis 2.6%, thiab cov poob qis ntawm 0.8 feem pua qis dua qis dua lub hlis dhau los. Thaum lub Kaum Hli, lub Tebchaws Asmeslivkas PMI tau 57.7%, poob 2.1 feem pua ntawm lub hli dhau los no, xws li: qhov kev txiav txim tshiab tshiab poob 4.4 feem pua, thiab tus qhua tuaj noj mov cov qhab nia nce nce 2.8 feem pua ntxiv. Thaum xaus ntawm lub Kaum Hli, cov nyiaj siv peev nyiaj siv hauv Teb Chaws Meskas tau siv li 81.0%, nce li 1.8 points ntawm lub hli dhau los. Feem pua cov ntsiab lus. Tus nqi ntawm cov khoom ntev hauv Midwest hauv lub tebchaws United States tseem nyob ruaj khov no lub hlis, thiab tus nqi ntawm phaj ntawd nce thiab nqis. Cov nqi ntawm cov npoo kub kub, cov ntaub txias txias thiab cov nplooj ntoos hlais kub hnyiab tseem pheej tsis kam, thiab poob qis.
(2) European cov lag luam
Nyob rau hauv Lub kaum hli ntuj, lub CRU European steel nqi Performance index yog 195.6 cov ntsiab lus, tus thawj ntawm 1.3 ntsiab lus los ntawm lub hli dhau los, tus thawj txo ntawm 0.7%. Thaum lub Kaum hlis, kev tsim PMI ntawm lub Eurozone yog 52.0%, poob 1.2 feem pua ntawm lub hli dhau los. Tus German manufacturing PMI yog 52.2%, nqis 1.5 feem pua ntawm lub hlis dhau los; Fabkis txoj PMI tau 51.2%, nqis 1.3 feem pua ntawm lub hli dhau los; cov Spanish manufacturing PMI yog 51.8%, nce 0.4 feem pua ntawm lub hlis dhau los; thiab Italian manufacturing PMI yog 49.2%. Cov saw poob los ntawm 0.8 feem pua ntsiab lus. Tus nqi ntawm cov hlau nyob rau hauv German khw sawv ntawm lub hli dhau los, thiab cov nqi ntawm cov khoom me me tseem poob. Cov nqi ntawm cov hlau tuav, hlau rods, phaj, kub dov kauj, txias kauj thiab kub dip galvanized ntawv tau tag nrho cov.
(3) Neeg Esxias kev lag luam
Thaum lub Kaum Hli Ntuj, CRU Asian steel index index tau 170.9 points, down 2.2 points ntawm lub hli dhau los, txo qis ntawm 1.3%, thiab poob qis yog 0.6 feem pua ntawm lub hli dhau los. Nyob rau hauv Lub Kaum Hlis, Nyiv kev tsim PMI yog 52.9%, nce 0.4 feem pua ntawm lub hlis dhau los; Tuam Tshoj kev tsim PMI yog 50.2%, qis 0.6 feem pua ntawm lub hli dhau los; Sab qab teb Kauslim kev tsim PMI yog 51.0%, nqis 0.3 feem pua ntawm lub hli dhau los. Tus nqi ntawm cov steel tuav thiab phaj nyob rau hauv lub lag luam Far East sab tseem ruaj khov lub hlis no, thaum nqi ntawm lwm cov ntau yam ntxiv mus poob, tab sis cov declines nyob rau hauv lub saw twb narrower tshaj lub hli tas los.
Qeb plaub, kev ntsuam xyuas ntawm tus qauv nqi ntawm lub lag luam hlau nyob rau lub sij hawm tom qab
Thaum cov huab cua hloov khaub thuas, txoj kev ua lag luam maj mam nkag mus rau lub caij nplooj zeeg. Raws li cov steel ntau seem nyob rau theem siab, cov nqi steel yuav hloov mus.
1. Lub teb chaws txoj cai tswjfwm kev ruaj ntseg tau qhia tawm tas li, thiab kev xav tau steel yuav tsum nyob ruaj khov.
Txij thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no, lub ntiaj teb thiab kev txawv txav tau hloov ntau yam thiab muaj ntau yam kev hloov, thiab Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam muaj feem xyuam nrog tej kev ntxhov siab. Yuav ua kom muaj kev lag luam ruaj khov, lub xeev tau muab cov kev cai tswj "ruaj khov" coj los xyuas. Los ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntawm thawj 10 lub hlis, cov cim tseem ceeb ntawm kev ua lag luam hauv lub tebchaws tau tseem nyob hauv ib qho kev tsim nyog, thiab txuas ntxiv mus kom muaj kev ruaj ntseg, ruaj khov thiab nce zuj zus. Cov tswv yim ntawm kev lag luam ruaj khov ntawm cov lag luam loj hauv lub sij hawm tom qab yuav tsis hloov ntau ntau. Lub xeev tau nce cov nyiaj txhawb rau cov tuam txhab lag luam los ntawm cov qhabnia cov lag luam los ntawm kev txheeb xyuas, rov nce nqi nyiaj thiab rov qab sib tw, tsim kom muaj nyiaj tshwj xeeb rau kev cog lus ntawm kev cog lus ncaj nceeg, ntxiv cov nqi se ntawm cov se, "Infrastructure ua. Thiab kev tsim peev nyiaj kuj tseem xav kom nce ntxiv. Zuag qhia tag nrho, steel thov tseem nyob ruaj khov.
2. Lub khw pib nkag mus rau lub caij nplooj zeeg ntawm qhov kev thov, thiab cov nqi steel yog tig mus rau hauv siab.
Raws li cov huab cua ua txias, lub khw lag luam maj mam nkag lub caij nyoog tsawg ntawm kev thov, thiab qhov kev thov rau steel cov khoom tsis kam. Thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, cov nqi steel tau pom tias muaj kev sib sib zog nqus. Steel mills tau nce lub zog ua kom zoo zog thiab kev ua haujlwm kom zoo dua qub, thiab kev siv hlau ntau lawm tseem nyob theem siab. Vim tias Sino-Teb Chaws Asmeskas lag luam kev sib txhuam, kev xa khoom xa tawm tau poob, thiab lub luag haujlwm ntawm kev siv cov kev pabcuam hauv tsev kuj muaj kev tsis txaus siab. Zuag qhia tag nrho, steel nqi muaj txojkev downward siab nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm tom qab, tab sis vim muaj cov khoom nyhav nce, cov nqi qis tsis zoo li yuav poob zuj zus.
3. Cov nyiaj stocks poob, thiab lub khw yuav tsum poob rau lub sij hawm tom qab.
Raws li kev txheeb xyuas, thaum xaus ntawm lub kaum hli ntuj, cov kev lag luam cov hlau muaj 9.81 lab tons, txo qis 200,000 tons, cia 2.03%; piv nrog pib ntawm lub xyoo, nce ntawm 1.87 lab tons, nce ntawm 23.50%; piv nrog rau tib lub sij hawm ntawm xyoo tas los, qhov txo ntawm 180,000 tons, txo tus nqi 1.85%. Raws li txoj kev lag luam maj mam nkag lub caij nyoog tsawg ntawm kev thov, steel inventories poob, qhia tias lub khw yuav tsum poob.
Lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum tau hais rau tom khw tom qab:
Ua ntej, cov phom ntau lawm nyob rau theem siab, thiab npaj siab yog qhov siab. Thaum lub Kaum Hli Ntuj, lub teb chaws nruab nrab txhua txhua hnub ntawm cov khoom siv nyhav nkag mus txog 2.623 plhom tons, txawm tias nws yog 1.19% los ntawm lub hli dhau los, nws tseem yog theem siab tshaj plaws nyob hauv keeb kwm. Tswj cov qib siab hlau ntau tsis yog ib qho zoo rau kev tswj kom muaj kev sib luag ntawm kev ua lag luam thiab kev thov. Thaum cov tuaj txog lub caij nplooj ntoos zeeg, cov hlau thiab cov hlau lag luam yuav tsum ua tib zoo soj ntsuam cov kev hloov hauv kev thov ua lag luam, khwv yees lub luag haujlwm ntawm cov stabilizers, thiab tswj kev lag luam ntawm lub khw.
Qhov thib ob, tus nqi hluav taws xob ntawm cov hlau ore hlau thiab steel tsis zoo, muab cov nyiaj paj taub ntawm cov nyiaj txiag luam tawm. Thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, CSPI steel nqi ntsuas index poob rau peb lub lis piam sib law liag, poob rau 116.74 points rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 16, down 4.03% ntawm lub Cuaj Hli xaus. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, CIOPI nqus hlau nqus hlau tuaj mus rau 74.22 USD / tuj, nce 9.34% los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm lub Cuaj Hli. Qhov sib txawv ntawm cov hlau ore hlau thiab cov nqi yuav tsis tshua muaj nqes nyiaj ntawm cov tuam txhab hlau, thiab txo nqi thiab kev ua haujlwm yuav tsum yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev ua haujlwm.
Thib peb, cov khoom ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj zog dua los ntawm lub hlis dhau los, thiab kev cuam tshuam ntawm Sino-Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev lag luam kev sib tsoo tsis raug suav. Nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis, lub teb chaws steel export volume yog 5.5 lab tons, tus thawj ntawm 450,000 tons los ntawm lub hli dhau los, tus nqi ntawm 7.6%. Cov lag luam hlau thiab steel yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo saib xyuas Sino-Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov kev lag luam, txhawm rau kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam ntawm kev lag luam hauv Suav teb thiab txoj kev lag luam hauv nqes hlau nqes, siv cov kev lag luam los kho cov qauv khoom thiab tswj kom muaj kev lag luam.
