Yog tias koj ua raws li kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, koj paub tias Tuam Tshoj dominates steel ntau lawm. Tab sis 2025 cov ntaub ntawv xa tawm raug cai tsuas yog tsaws, thiab nws tseem ceeb dua li cov neeg feem coob paub.
Daim duab Headline: 119,019,000 Tons
Qhov ntawd yog tus lej raug cai los ntawm Tuam Tshoj General Administration of Customs (GAC). Txhawm rau muab tso rau hauv qhov kev xav: yog tias koj thauj tag nrho cov hlau no mus rau cov qauv tsheb thauj khoom, lub tsheb ciav hlau yuav ncab ze li ob zaug nyob ib ncig ntawm lub ntiaj teb txoj kab nruab nrab. Tuam Tshoj tseem tuav lub npe ntawm lub ntiaj teb sab saum toj steel exporter los ntawm ib mais - nws cov khoom xa tawm yuav luag sib npaug rau tag nrho cov khoom xa tawm tom ntej (Russia, Qaib ntxhw, Is Nrias teb, thiab lwm yam).
Tab sis tus lej yeej tsis qhia tag nrho zaj dab neeg.
OECD covSteel Outlook 2026muaj lwm qhov suav: suav nrog kev xa tawm tsis ncaj qha steel (steel embedded hauv cov khoom xa tawm), Tuam Tshoj xa tawm 131 lab tons ntawm steel txawv teb chaws hauv xyoo 2025, nce 153% los ntawm 2020, thiab sib npaug li 14% ntawm nws cov khoom siv roj av tag nrho xyoo ntawd.
Ob lub datasets siv cov cai suav sib txawv me ntsis, tab sis lawv taw tes rau qhov tseeb tib yam: steel xa tawm tsis yog kev lag luam thib ob rau Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam steel. Lawv yog tus ncej tseem ceeb ua kom tag nrho cov haujlwm khiav haujlwm. Tab sis tus ncej no tau dhau los ntawm kev hloov pauv keeb kwm tam sim no.
Peb Tau Txais 119 lab Tons li cas? 3 Core Drivers
Cov ntaub ntawv xa tawm no tsis tau tawm ntawm qhov chaw. Nws yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm peb qhov kev hloov pauv loj hauv ob peb xyoos dhau los:
1. Kev thov hauv tsev tau tsoo lub qab nthab
2025 tau pom txuas ntxiv mus rau kev tsim vaj tsev tshiab thiab kev lag luam kev lag luam qeeb qeeb hauv Suav teb. Steel noj los ntawm ib txwm loj buyers - kev tsim kho, machinery, thiab pib industries - tag nrho poob. Kev ua lag luam hauv tsev tau hloov pauv los ntawm "kev sib tw rau kev xav tau loj hlob" mus rau "kev sib ntaus sib tua rau ib daim ntawm lub ncuav qab zib". Rau steel mills uas tsis tuaj yeem nthuav kev muag khoom hauv tsev, kev xa tawm yog txoj hauv kev zoo tshaj plaws los txo cov peev txheej thiab ua kom cov nyiaj tau los ruaj khov. Tus lej 119 lab tuj yog qhov tseem ceeb "spillover" ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab kev thov tsis sib npaug.
2. Cov qauv tsis sib xws hauv ntiaj teb cov khoom siv thiab kev thov
Tom qab Russia-Ukraine teeb meem, steel mills nyob rau hauv EU thiab US pom tus nqi skyrocket, thiab qee lub peev xwm kaw. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, Cov Neeg Esxias Qab Teb Hnub Tuaj, Middle East, Africa, thiab Latin America yog nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev xav tau kev tsim kho vaj tse ntxiv. Nrog nws cov saw hlau ua tiav, loj- nplai ntau lawm, thiab cov khoom siv ruaj khov muaj kev ntseeg siab, Tuam Tshoj tau nqis los ua qhov sib txawv no.
3. Spillover ntawm Tuam Tshoj kev tsim khoom thoob ntiaj teb nthuav dav
Ib qho loj ntawm cov hlau xa tawm no yog "ua raws-raws li kev xa tawm": Suav cov khoom siv hauv tsev, tsheb, thiab cov khoom lag luam tau tsim cov chaw tsim khoom txawv teb chaws, yog li lawv cov kev txhawb nqa steel txav nrog lawv. Los yog hlau raug xa mus ua ib feem ntawm EPC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction) tej yaam num, bundled nrog cov cuab yeej rau txawv teb chaws infrastructure tsim. Qhov no "tag nrho cov kev lag luam sib koom ua lag luam xa tawm" hloov pauv qhov xwm txheej ntawm Tuam Tshoj cov khoom xa tawm steel: nws tsis yog kev lag luam yooj yim xwb, nws yog ib feem ntawm kev teeb tsa thoob ntiaj teb ntawm tag nrho cov kev lag luam ecosystem.
Tus Catch: 3 Qhov Kev Tsis Pom Zoo zais tom qab tus lej Bright
Cov naj npawb xa tawm zoo li zoo nkauj, tab sis cov neeg ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam tau ntsib kev nyuaj siab tiag tiag:
1. Kev txiav txim yog nce, tab sis cov txiaj ntsig poob qis
Hauv xyoo 2025, FOB tus nqi nruab nrab rau cov khoom xa tawm tseem ceeb (kub dov coils, rebar, seem steel) poob 5-8% xyoo rau xyoo, thaum cov nqi thauj khoom, kev sib pauv hloov pauv, thiab cov nqi kho mob tag nrho sawv. Ntau tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm steel mills hais tias: "Export ntim tau nce 10%, tab sis cov txiaj ntsig tau poob 15% xwb." Scaling nce kev muag khoom tsis coj cov khoom rov qab.
2. Cov neeg siv khoom nyob ntawd, tab sis lawv cov kev xav tau yog cov ncauj lus kom ntxaws
Cov neeg siv khoom loj nyob sab Europe thiab Asmeskas tam sim no muaj cov kev cai nruj rau cov ntaub ntawv qhia cov pa roj carbon hneev taw, muab kev taug qab, thiab ESG nthuav tawm. Cov neeg muas zaub nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Asia thiab Middle East tab tom thov kom nruj me ntsis sij hawm xa khoom, kev cai tshwj xeeb, thiab kev ua haujlwm thiab kev faib khoom. Muag steel tsis yog txav ib yam khoom ntxiv lawm - nws yog muag tag nrho cov hlau tov.
3. Kev lag luam qhib, tab sis cov kev cai nruj dua qub
2025-2026 tau pom cov txheej txheem nruj tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb rau cov hlau puas tau:
Lub EU txoj cai tshiab ntshuam steel quota tau siv, muab tag nrho ntim txwv ntawm kub dov steel, seem steel, welded kav thiab lwm yam pawg;
Teb Chaws Asmeskas khaws nws Tshooj 232 25% tariff rau steel, ntxiv rau kev tiv thaiv - pov tseg thiab tiv thaiv - cov dej num pab, thawb tag nrho cov nqi se rau qee yam khoom ntau dua 50%;
Tuam Tshoj dov tawm export daim ntawv tso cai tswj rau ib co steel khoom, xws li kub dov steel thiab rebar;
Ntau lub lag luam tawm tshiab suav nrog Mexico, Brazil, Is Nrias teb, Indonesia thiab Nyab Laj tau pib tshawb xyuas kev lag luam kho mob ntawm cov hlau tuaj txawv teb chaws.
Lub sijhawm tsis muaj kev tswj hwm "dawb sailing" rau kev lag luam steel thoob ntiaj teb tau ua tiav lawm.
Tom ntej no yog dab tsi? Cheap Steel Yuav Tsis Yeej
Hauv 5-10 xyoo tom ntej no, cov neeg sib tw feem ntau yuav tsis yog cov muag khoom pheej yig tshaj plaws. Lawv yuav yog cov neeg koom tes uas paub lawv cov neeg siv khoom zoo tshaj plaws, daws lawv cov teeb meem tiag tiag, thiab loj hlob nrog lawv.
